Weather Forecast for Monday Evening January 13th

This is the latest area weather forecast from the National Weather Service in Medford at 2:49 PM PST Monday Jan 13 2020. DISCUSSION... .Short Term...Tonight through Thursday Night...The weather in southwest Oregon and northern California never ceases to be a challenge. A warm front is pushing through the area, and the associated surface low center is just now moving onshore. Heavy snow is ongoing in the mountains, especially in the Cascades where snow rates of 3 to 4 inches per hour have been reported, and several road closures have resulted. Meanwhile, rain is falling in the West Side valleys, for the most part, and the snow level appears to be around 2000 feet, except for where it isn`t: We are also seeing snow making it to the ground and beginning to accumulate at Camas Mountain at 1500 feet, and even at Rice Hill north of Sutherlin at just above 750 feet. At the same time, Canyon Mountain Summit, at just over 2000 feet, is seeing only rain. For the rest of the evening, snow levels are expected to hover where they are before lowering tonight behind the cold front, and precipitation will continue in earnest through about midnight before tapering off as showers into the early morning. During the morning commute, another impulse will arrive, and this should help to enhance precipitation rates once again. As is typical with low elevation snow chances in mountain areas, the details remain uncertain right up until the event arrives, and this situation is no different. Confidence remains low regarding when this impulse arrives and if the cold air will remain in the area, or if temperatures can rise a bit before it does. Current thinking is that cold air will remain, and snow is likely to continue falling through Tuesday morning for any locations above 1500 feet. Showers should taper off Tuesday evening. As a result We have dropped snow levels a bit for tonight, based on the colder air we have seen today, and extended Winter Weather Advisories down to 1500 feet on the West Side. However, it is entirely possible we will see snow make it down to 1000 feet or even lower, especially in the northern Umpqua Basin as cold air filters in there from the Willamette Valley. In the Rogue and Illinois Valleys, snow could make it to the valley floors, but amounts should be light. For elevations above 1500, 1 to 3 inches are possible, perhaps more locally. In other words, anyone traveling through the area tonight into tomorrow should be prepared for wintry travel, even in the inland valley floors, especially during the night and through the morning commute. For details on snow amounts and headline locations, see the winter weather message at PDXWSWMFR. This last impulse on Tuesday should mark the end of the "cold and wet westerly flow" systems we have seen over the past week, but it will not mean the end of active weather. After a brief break Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, the next system approaches the region by Wednesday afternoon. This system will be more like our typical wet-season events, with southerly flow ahead of the cold front. The most notable aspect of the system will be the rapid drop in pressure as it nears the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, and this is likely to produce quite a bit of wind along the coast and offshore. Inland areas will also be windy, but not as strong. We expect to see the more southerly flow, produce plenty of precipitation in our southern area, with several inches of rain possible in Curry County. With colder air already in the area, it will also produce copious amounts of snow in the Mt. Shasta area, mainly in southern and western Siskiyou County Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Heavy snow is likely to fall in the Cascades as well, but not like what we have seen in the last several days. Winter Storm Watches are in effect, as well as several high Wind Watches, and these will likely be upgraded over the next 24 hours. Behind the heavier precipitation associated with the front Thursday, showers are likely to continue through Thursday night, with snow levels hovering around 2000 feet. -BPN LONG TERM...Friday-Monday, January 17-20th...Showers could linger in the mountains and along the coast Friday, but overall, we'll be in a period of short wave ridging between systems that should allow precipitation to end for a while in most places. However, the pressure gradient will begin to increase again as low pressure out around 50N and 140W sends another cold front toward the PacNW coast. This front isn't as strong as the one on Wednesday, but there could still be a period of increased winds in advance of it through the usual locations (Shasta Valley, southern end of the Rogue Valley and from the Cascades eastward) late Friday or more likely Friday night into Saturday. The front will likely lose some of its punch as it approaches the coast Friday night, then moves onshore Saturday morning, but expect another period of mostly light rain/snow with snow levels rising from 2500 feet to around 4000 feet. Snow levels will come back down to 2500 feet late Saturday night into Sunday morning, but precipitation will be mostly ending by then. Models are indicating a dry period Sunday with the next front possibly reaching the coast early next week. Snow levels should rise to above 4000 feet during this time frame. -Spilde