Heavy Mountain Snow Expected This Weekend, Possible Icy Conditions in Northern Douglas County

Here is the latest forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Medford. tl;dr As much as 3-4 feet of snow is expected to fall up at higher elevations in the Cascades by Saturday night. "3:56 AM PST Fri Jan 12 2024 Our active weather continues today through the weekend with a combination of breezy/gusty winds, heavy rainfall along/near the coast, higher elevation snow, and possible icy conditions for northern parts of Douglas County. We do get a break on Monday, but things could become active mid-week with snow returning to the higher elevations. At this time, amounts do not look overly concerning for the higher elevations mid to late next week. Further Details: Models are in decent agreement with the track of the approaching closed low, but there remains subtle difference in the progression and path. These subtle difference are not going to lead to much changes in the overall messaging of impacts. This system is packing good dynamics, and there with be impacts felt from the coast to inland areas over the coastal ranges, westside valleys, Cascades, and areas east of the Cascades. Rainfall rates in addition to rainfall duration along/near the coast may lead to localized flooding, especially Friday through Saturday night in Curry County. Rainfall amounts could be on the order of 3 to 5 inches during this stretch of time. Highest amounts and rates are expected Saturday morning through Saturday evening. The NBM is indicating a 75% probability for rainfall amounts to be 3.00" or more over 24hrs for southern parts of Curry County. During this time we could see some isolated convective elements. Even without the convective elements, rainfall rates/amounts are still on the high side and therefore we have issued a Flood Watch to account for this threat for mainly Curry County. Forecast soundings are indicating a potential for freezing rain across portions of northern Douglas County Saturday morning. There is a decent warm layer where hydrometeors could melt before refreezing near the surface, but the big questions are in the lower levels where temperatures may not be cold enough for freezing rain. The biggest issue is will temperatures allow for supercooled water droplets to form which is really essential for freezing rain. Forecast soundings do show this possibility briefly Saturday morning with low level temperatures around 0C to -3C. NBM is also hinting at probabilities for ice. Going to be close for our area with a little better chance for areas to our north on I-5. Since this would impact areas along I-5 in northern Douglas County, drivers should be cautious for this threat Saturday morning. As the system moves inland, we are going to see another round of feet for snowfall amounts in the Cascades. Highest impacts look to be above 4000 feet where most of the snow is expected to accumulate. On the east side, there will be breezy/gusty winds in addition to snowfall, so there could be visibility restrictions in some of the populated areas. These areas are also in the Winter Storm Warning. Wind speeds will be breezy/gusty starting this morning and going through at least Saturday evening. There is some concern for areas in Shasta Valley to reach thresholds for high winds as well, so there is a watch in effect at this time. While the pressure gradient is there, the wind direction may be the limiting factor to lean against the high winds. Will let this ride another shift, but we may want to take a closer look at the direction before we make a final say. Looking ahead to next week, high pressure builds in aloft Monday and we get a break in some of the impactful weather. However, another surface low appears to develop Tuesday night into Wednesday which could impact the PacNW. This could bring another round of precipitation to the area. At this time, impacts look to be minimal, but we will continue to monitor the situation as it progresses. -Guerrero"