Storm Packing High Winds Set to Hit Oregon Tuesday Into Wednesday.

A significant storm is set to hit Oregon starting tomorrow into Wednesday with very high winds. Southern Oregon and the Oregon Coast will be the hardest hit areas. Douglas County Could see winds as high as 29 mph. Between the high winds and the snow, travel to southern Oregon should be avoided if at all possible in the next few days. Here is the latest forecast discussion from the NWS in Medford. SHORT TERM...With a shortwave upper trough in place, scattered showers are continuing today from the Cascades west. Showers will linger through evening with snow levels near 2000 feet, then diminish tonight. The break in the activity will be very brief. Models remain on track showing a strong and moist, cold low pressure system dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska tonight, shifting south just off the Pacific Northwest coast. This will be a significant weather system with impacts from heavy snow across much of Siskiyou and portions of eastern Curry and Josephine Counties (heaviest for 1500 feet elevation and above). Strong, gusty winds are expected over the mountains, in the Shasta Valley and at coastal headlands. On Tuesday, models are on track, showing good agreement with a 997 mb surface low moving south of the coast of Washington and Oregon. As this low nears the area, it will bring a front into the coast Tuesday afternoon. Then as the surface low moves southward just off the southern Oregon and northern California coast, this front will shift inland and gradually to the southeast Tuesday evening and night. This system will bring significant impacts with moderate to heavy snow over portions of southwest Oregon and northwest California along with some locations seeing strong, gusty winds. A strong mid level jet associated with this low pressure system will move into the area. Models show 700 mb winds of 60 to 75 kt out of the southwest moving into the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. At the surface, a strong pressure gradient will develop (9-11 mb from Medford to Redding) which will allow strong south winds to develop in the Shasta Valley with gusts to around 60 to 70 mph. Gusty winds are also likely in the Rogue Valley, especially south of Medford to Ashland, with gusts of around 35 to 45 mph. Gusty winds are likely from the Cascades east as well with winds of 30 to 45 mph in the valleys and 45 to 60 mph over the ridges. In the Rogue Valley, these winds may be accompanied by a rain/snow mix or snow at times, especially Tuesday evening into Tuesday night for areas above 1500 feet elevation. A wind advisory is in place for the Summer Lake area in Lake County late Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning (Please see the NPWMFR for details). With this storm system, heavy precipitation rates will develop in Curry, Josephine and Siskiyou counties late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. This combined with a cold air mass in place will result in heavy, wet snow developing across these area. There is high confidence for very heavy, wet snow in the Mount Shasta area where strong upslope southerly winds will combine with moisture. Heavy snow rates of up to 1 to 2 inches per hour are expected at times, especially late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Total snow accumulations of 2 feet or more is expected in the south central and southeast Sikiyou County area near Mount Shasta from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Heavy snow rates are expected to extend into the southern Shasta Valley as well where heavy snowfall combined with strong winds (gusting to 60 to 70 mph) will bring blizzard-like conditions at times with near zero visibility. This will make roads impassible at times. Moderate to heavy snowfall will then continue Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon for these areas in Siskiyou County. A winter storm warning is in effect for this area. This is a very dangerous situation and travelers are urged to make plans to avoid travel during winter storm conditions. Other areas will also snow impacts. Across western Siskiyou, Josephine and eastern Curry Counties models indicate moderate to heavy snow is expected, with heaviest snow expected above 1500 feet elevation and lighter snow amounts down to lower valley floors. Although not as heavy or as long of a duration an event compared to the snow in the Mount Shasta area, the lower passes and valley locations (above 1500 feet) are expected to see a period of heavy snow rates as this front moves inland. Elsewhere across the CWA, areas of light to moderate snow are expected, including in western valleys above 1500 feet, over the mountains and for areas from the Cascades east. Heaviest snowfall is expected Tuesday evening through early Wednesday morning for these areas. Please see the WSWMFR for details on the snow and blowing snow expected in the area Tuesday into Wednesday. On Wednesday,the front will shift southeast of the area. However the surface low off the coast of southern Oregon and far northern California, will remain in place, gradually moving northward along the coast Wednesday evening and night. With this low in place, expect additional moderate to locally heavy precipitation across southwest portions of the CWA, heaviest in Curry and Siskiyou Counties and possibly into southern Josephine County. This will bring continued impacts from snow for these areas through Wednesday morning (and through Wednesday afternoon for the Mount Shasta area). Confidence is low in how much snow the lower west side valleys may see Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to uncertainty in how much precipitation will occur and how widespread showers will be. Snow levels are expected to lower down to between 500 to 1000 feet during this time. However, precipitation may remain light across western valleys during this time. Precipitation may increase in the afternoon on Wednesday across Josephine County. However, snow levels are expected to rise to 2000 ft or higher at that time. Wednesday evening and night, an upper low will move down the Pacific Northwest coast with a weak surface low along the coast. This pattern may bring continued moderate precipitation, especially across Siskiyou County. This may result in additional snow impacts, especially in the Mount Shasta area. We will need to evaluate this will future model runs.